Q3 Bellwether Shows Brands Know They Can’t “Wait and See” on the Economy or AI

Today’s IPA Bellwether Report paints a curious picture. Overall adspend is up, on balance companies seem confident in their own financial prospects, though worries about inflation and the general health of the UK economy (which won’t have been helped by yesterday’s IMF warning) continue to loom and forecasts for growth in 2026 have been revised down from 1.6% growth to 1.2%. 

Among all that, there are a few bright spots, with increased spend in areas like direct marketing and PR. But by far the biggest increase in spend has been seen in events, which is up from +3.9% to a whopping 10.9%. As social media feeds begin to fill with AI slop, the value of connecting with consumers IRL becomes clear.

“The data showed that events budgets saw the most significant increase in spend, closely followed by direct marketing, as firms prioritised face-to-face client and prospect engagement. In contrast, spending on sales promotions declined as firms favoured brand-building activities which are more supportive of long-term growth,” says Maryam Baluch, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

For those deep in the experiential side of the industry, the Bellwether findings track what they’re seeing among clients and in the market.

"This quarter’s Bellwether results reflect what we’re seeing here,” says Caroline Wurfbain, SVP, Director of client services at Jack Morton. “Brands are reinvesting in live, authentic experiences, with events driving meaningful growth and energy across the industry. Many are expanding their investment by layering in smaller, more localised activations that strengthen communities. Experiences are increasingly viewed as storytelling platforms, generating content that extends long after the moment itself. With ROI and agility still top of mind, clients are using real-time insights to pivot toward what engages people in the UK."

Matthew Blake, is Executive Director Strategy and Planning at George P. Johnson. “It’s no surprise we’re seeing a pattern of growth for events and experiential, especially in Q3. With a packed summer of sport, culture and entertainment, brands are really leaning into live engagement to turn passive exposure into active participation. We’ve seen our clients take their sponsorships and collaborations with rights holders beyond logos and airtime, creating experiences that bring their stories to life. From fan zones and immersive tech to story-driven activations, these moments are connecting brand purpose with audience passion.”

“In such a crowded media landscape, it’s those real, shared experiences that cut through and make brands genuinely memorable,” says Matthew.

Events and experiences cut through, argues Patrick Reid, CEO of Imagination.
"The message from the latest Bellwether is loud and clear: experiences aren’t a side act, they’re the main event. For the eleventh quarter in a row, brands are putting more budget into live moments because they know that clicks don’t build connection - people do,” he says.

Indeed the increase in spend in events reflects a wider trend, highlighted in the Bellwether report, which is a slight shift towards brand building activities.
“We’re seeing the smartest brands balance performance with presence. Data-driven campaigns might drive action, but experiences drive emotion, and that’s what keeps audiences coming back,” says Patrick. “This isn’t just another quarter of growth; it’s proof of a mindset shift. In an age of endless noise, experiences cut through. They make people feel something real. That’s the difference between being seen and being remembered."
This increase in spend and decision to invest in brands now is, argues Chris Woodward, executive director at Oliver, a sign that marketers can’t sit back and wait for the economy to improve or for the impact of genAI to shake out.

“Although initially hesitant, brands are facing into the dual storms of a stagnating economy and the disruption caused by genAI,” he says. “They’ve realised they can’t wait for the market conditions to improve, the tough times are here to stay for the foreseeable and, similarly, they can’t sit on the fence and ‘wait and see’ what happens with AI. We are seeing more brands in-market now looking to invest and right-shape their marketing agencies and teams and invest to drive brand consideration and sales.”

Even the impending November budget from Labour’s Rachel Reeves isn’t putting brands off. “Q3 results in recent years have shown a note of caution, perhaps unsurprisingly, given their timing just ahead of the Autumn Budget,” says the IPA’s Paul Bainsfair. “That said, it’s encouraging to see the net balance remain in positive territory. Even in a tough economic climate, businesses clearly continue to recognise the value of advertising. “What’s particularly interesting is that new analysis of IPA data reinforces the strong link between budget and business growth. The message is simple: to drive meaningful results, advertisers need to think big. Big marketing budgets, broad reach and high exposure. Scale really does matter, which is why investing in big, brandbuilding media remains so important.”

For Jon Goulding, CEO at Atomic London, the real story is a bit more complex than the Bellwether might suggest, particularly considering the blurring lines between categories of marketing spend.

“It’s heartening to see spend forecasts looking strong which is the macro indicator to hold on to despite the inevitable uncertainty around the Autumn statement. But the quarter-on-quarter shifts by discipline don’t really tell a reliable story,” he says. “Despite the broad-brush historical terminology and categorisations in the report, sales promotion continues to grow rapidly but it's in the form of social-first, social search and social commerce.

“There’s lots of reasons to be positive and in amongst the slow growth macro figures, there is fast growth in the collision between disciplines. At Atomic we’re up 35% year-on-year precisely because of this. Clients aren’t necessarily showing a shift from short-termism to long-termism but actually a move to needing short-term and long-term AT the same time. Something a social-out philosophy can deliver on for the more ambitious and enlightened brands.”