Q4’s Bellwether Report May Offer Glimmer of Hope Despite Spending Flatlining

​The IPA’s Bellwether report from Q4 makes for grim reading for an industry that appeared to be feeling more optimistic in 2025. Following two consecutive quarters of an increase in budgets spending has now flatlined at 0.0%, as the Autumn Budget headwind and general geopolitical and economic uneasiness led to some companies reallocating their budgets. Out of all the Bellwether respondents, 57.4% left their budgets unchanged, while the rest were evenly split between raising and cutting.

The only two main categories to report a marked increase in spending were PR and events, with PR’s net balance rising from +2.5% in Q3 to +3.5%. However for events this wasn’t a straightforward win, as the net balance of firms increasing their events spend dropped drastically from +10.9% to +1.4%.

Sarah Logan, head of agency partnerships EMEA at Intuit Mailchimp, believes there should be prioritising of long-term relationship building rather than short-term quick-fix promotions.

She told LBB, “To see UK marketing budgets flatline in Q4 2025 may be indicative of the wider economic challenges we have been seeing over recent months, but it is concerning nonetheless.

“The fact that sales promotions budgets recorded no change (0%) is significant, given Q4 is such a crucial period for retailers and marketers throughout the holiday shopping season. In the months ahead, marketers need to look beyond promotions and focus efforts on long-term brand- and relationship-building. 

“Personalisation is a crucial tactic for marketers, many of whom find themselves having to do more with less lately. Intuit Mailchimp research shows that the appetite is there, with almost two-thirds (62%) of UK consumers happy to trade their personal data if they see the benefit. With 37% of business leaders* saying that capturing attention and converting the very first sale is a major hurdle, effective personalisation offers marketers a valuable opportunity to stand out and connect with their audience in a meaningful way. This in turn helps to build loyal fanbases of repeat customers – a struggle faced by 40% of business leaders*. 

“By targeting the right audience at the right time, with relevant content and through multichannel campaigns, marketers can drive engagement and boost ROI when it's needed most.”

Co-founder of re:act Tom Stone added that there is danger in brands being too tentative. He explained, “This Bellwether feels less like confidence returning and more like marketers pressing pause. A flat net balance suggests brands are choosing to steady the ship rather than pull back or push on. This caution is understandable given the ongoing policy uncertainty, tax changes and a still-fragile outlook. It is a defensive posture, but not a retreat.

“What stands out is how spending is being reshaped rather than slashed. Digital growth is steady, yet it is increasingly bound up with offline activity, as marketers focus on joined-up execution and accountability instead of channel silos. That same mindset shows up in attitudes to AI. It is largely being deployed to sweat existing investment, not to drive bold new growth strategies.

“The risk is that prolonged restraint turns into inertia. Brands that continue to show up, particularly while others hesitate, have a chance to build momentum quietly. In markets like this, visibility gained now often pays back later.”

While the numbers might seem bleak now, there are those who believe the industry can still find reasons to be cautiously hopeful about the future.

The one sub-component of the main media category that did see growth was ‘other online’, which soared from +2.1% in Q3 to +13.2% in Q4.

Cressida Holmes-Smith, chief executive officer at Lucky Generals, argued that Q4’s Bellwether should inspire new opportunities for those brave enough to keep innovating.

She told LBB, “I don’t think the headline should be ‘marketing has stalled’ it should be ‘confidence has stalled.’ And when confidence drops, creativity is usually the first thing to get squeezed out.

“That matters because creativity doesn’t come from pressure or panic, it comes from belief. Belief in the work, belief in the people making it, and belief that bold ideas still have the power to move markets. When organisations retreat into pure caution, they don’t just reduce spend, they reduce imagination.

“So yes, budgets are under strain, but there’s something genuinely positive here: downturns create opportunity for the brands brave enough to keep investing and be even more creatively ambitious. If you can protect space for creativity and experimentation now, you can build standout work, win share of voice, and come out of uncertainty stronger than you went in.”

Founder and CEO of The Liberty Guild Jon Williams was even more vehement. He stated, “Is there anything to be positive about after reading that? Yeah loads? I’m positive advertising is a burning platform. I’m positive that businesses behaving in 2026 as they did in 2025 won’t be doing that in 2027. I’m positive that we need to look inwardly and change how we operate as the world around us changes. I’m also positive that there is huge hope amidst the chaos. I’m positive that many other different shaped businesses are emerging. I’m positive that the power of ideas will win over the power of slop. I’m also positive that, yes, of course spend has slowed down in a volatile and uncertain world on a myriad of levels, but I know that a lot of that spend has merely shifted. 

“It’s funny how the Bellwether is so tied to legacy output that it doesn’t even measure the impact of AI, agentic, digital transformation programmes and the implementation of workflow management platforms. You know, all of the ways that brands and businesses are looking at transforming their marketing output in a way that is more reflective of the technology available to them. And all of us.

“Yes, we have to save money but we also have to spend it more smartly... and that’s the lesson in the pages of this report.”

For McCann Central’s chief strategy officer Ringo Moss, the effects of not spending will result in more damage being done. He told LBB, “By any measure we are in a pretty wild time socially, technologically and economically, so it’s completely understandable that organisations lean harder into short-term ROI and efficiency because it feels safer, more controllable, and easier to justify around the board table. 

“The risk (as effectiveness evidence has shown time and again) is that an unyielding focus on efficiency will eventually come at the quiet expense of profit. Real growth tends to come from sustained, distinctive brand presence, emotional connection and mental availability, especially when others pull back. 

“Connecting activity to core brand truths during precarious times is more important than ever, because when the truth is well told it can move people and markets, and we need to keep moving. So my big hope is a more optimistic reading; that this period of hesitation might actually sharpen that lesson. As the effects of reduced spend show up in softer demand and lost momentum for brands, there’s a real chance budgets get reopened later in the year with a return back to what genuinely drives long-term growth, not just what feels reassuring in the moment.”

*According to Mailchimp’s study in late July 2025, in partnership with Sapio research. The survey was conducted among 375 Marketers of all seniorities and 375 BDMs at manager level or above across all sectors in the UK.