The Odds Are In: Super Bowl LX Predictions from 6 Years of Data

Every year, the Super Bowl sparks a familiar ritual. Before kickoff, we debate creativity, celebrity cameos, and cultural relevance. After the final whistle, we debate about which ads “won.”

But once the buzz fades, brands are left with a more serious question. Did my ad actually drive business?

At System1, we look past hype and hindsight to focus on what drives long- and short-term commercial impact. When you analyze six years of Super Bowl advertising through that lens, something interesting happens. Patterns emerge. And those patterns make Super Bowl success far more predictable than most people think.

Here is what the data says to watch out for in Super Bowl LX.

Our Celebrity Prediction: Expect Familiar Faces to Return

When brands invest at Super Bowl scale, they tend to prioritize certainty over experimentation. The data suggests Super Bowl LX will follow that same logic.

Serena Williams stands out as the most likely celebrity to appear again this year. She is one of the most globally recognized figures in culture, and she has appeared in more Super Bowl ads over the past six years than any other individual. That track record makes her a reliable choice when attention is scarce and expectations are high.

She is not alone. Pete Davidson, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning also show up repeatedly, highlighting how narrow the celebrity pool becomes when brands are under pressure to engage audiences, be culturally relevant and capture attention. 

Our prediction is that this trend will continue.

For brands, the opportunity lies in how celebrity equity is used. Fame is very effective at drawing attention, but attention alone does not guarantee impact. The brands that get the most value are the ones that anchor celebrity appearances to distinctive brand assets that clearly signal ownership.

The brands that stand to gain the most are those that convert attention into something more durable: clarity, consistency, and a long-term brand idea that lives beyond any single moment of star power. Uber Eats offers a strong example. By extending its Super Bowl LIX “Football is for Food” platform into the NFL season and seamlessly swapping Matthew McConaughey for Bradley Cooper, the brand proves the strength of the idea itself. The concept remains intact while the face evolves, giving Uber Eats both creative flexibility and ongoing novelty without sacrificing the brand connections already built.

Our Brand Character Prediction: Budweiser Is Still the Brand to Beat

Based on historical Super Bowl performance, Budweiser remains the strongest candidate to deliver the highest brand recall in Super Bowl LX. Across recent years, it has achieved an average brand fluency score of 96%, a level of consistency that few advertisers can rival.

That performance is driven by one of the most valuable assets in advertising: a long-standing brand character. The Clydesdales are not only instantly recognizable, they are emotionally resonant. Their familiarity allows Budweiser to tap into decades of accumulated emotional equity, creating warmth and meaning almost instantly.

Recognition matters, but emotion is what gives that recognition lasting commercial value. Well-known characters benefit from what might be called compound interest. Each appearance builds on the last, making it easier for emotion to land quickly and work harder for the brand.

Our prediction is that this advantage will once again put Budweiser at the top of the brand recall table.

That said, the competition is closing in. The M&M’s spokescandies, with an average fluency score of 92%, remain one of the most effective character systems in advertising. Their consistency and clarity give them real potential to challenge Budweiser if the creative leans into emotion as well as humor.

Mr. Peanut is also one to watch. As one of advertising’s longest-running characters, he brings deep familiarity and heritage. Activated with warmth and expressiveness, he has the potential to convert recognition into stronger emotional impact and narrow the recall gap.

Budweiser may still be the benchmark, but Super Bowl LX could be one of the most competitive years yet for character-led brand storytelling.

Our Prediction on Cut-Through: Playing it Safe Is Not an Option

Another pattern we expect to repeat in Super Bowl LX is the advantage of emotionally distinctive advertising.

As outlined in 'The Extraordinary Cost of Dull' by Jon Evans, Adam Morgan, and Peter Field, the biggest threat to advertising effectiveness is not negativity, but neutrality. Ads that generate little emotional response may feel safe, but they quietly erode long-term commercial impact by failing to build memory, meaning, or momentum.

Some Super Bowl advertisers consistently avoid this trap. Reese’s is a clear example, with an average neutrality score of just 21% across its Super Bowl appearances. Pfizer follows closely at 22%. Both sit well below the Super Bowl advertising average, not because they seek controversy, but because they make deliberate creative choices designed to make audiences feel something. Reese’s often pairs an exciting new product launch with absurdity, leaning into surprise, while Pfizer pulls on the heartstrings, tapping into sadness to keep neutrality at bay. One of the strongest examples of emotional focus comes from Mountain Dew’s Super Bowl LIX ad, featuring Seal as a literal seal. Whacky and weird, the spot sparked contempt, fear, anger, and surprise, yet emerged as the least dull ad of 2025.

Our prediction is that emotionally intense ads that tap into negative and positive emotion will once again cut through. In the Super Bowl, dullness is far more costly than boldness.

The Same Playbook Will Keep Delivering

The Super Bowl may be unpredictable on the field, but advertising effectiveness follows remarkably stable principles. Familiar celebrities continue to earn their place. Long-standing brand characters compound value over time. And the ads that truly cut through are the ones that make people feel something.

Super Bowl LX is unlikely to break that pattern.

For Super Bowl advertisers, the message is reassuring. You do not need to reinvent the rules to win on the biggest stage. You just need to apply them with confidence.